Intrade Contracts for New York and Minnesota Seats

I’ve added a couple of things to the left sidebar. They both involve Intrade contracts. Intrade (www.intrade.com) is a real money futures market that has contracts on future political elections and events. The range of prices on the contracts is between 0 and 100. They correspond roughly to the perceived likelihood of the event in the eyes of those who are buying the contracts on this open market. The closer to 100 the contract is, the greater is the perceived likelihood that the even will occur. These contracts have proven to be quite accurate predictors. I’ll have more to say on such political futures markets a bit later. At this point, I’ve added the contracts on the appointment to fill the New York Senate seat occupied by Hillary Clinton. This is obviously contingent on her resigning to become Secretary of State. The other set of contracts I have up at this point involve the Norm Coleman’s Senate seat. The outcome is uncertain. The recount is underway and it is likely to be followed by challenges in court.