Kirsten Gillibrand Sworn In As New York Senator

Moments ago, congresswomen Kirsten Gillibrand was sworn in to replace Hillary Clinton as New York’s junior US Senator. Clinton was confirmed as Secretary of State last week, creating the vacancy. New York Governor David Paterson announced his selection of Gillibrand late last week.

Last Thursday, Michael Bennett was sworn in as Colorado’s junior US Senator. He assumed the seat previously occupied by Ken Salazar, who was confirmed as Secretary of the Interior. Colorado Governor Bill Ritter selected Bennett for the post.

This leaves just one slot vacant. The Senate seat representing Minnesota that was formerly held by Norm Coleman remains unoccupied. The state has announced that the result of the statutory recount indicated that Al Franken had won the seat by 225 votes. However, Franken has not assumed the seat due to court challenges levied by the Coleman campaign.

Decision on Franken Petition No Sooner Than February

The Minnesota Supreme Court will not rule on Al Franken’s petition for an expedited election certificate until at least February 5. Franken sought the certificate so that he could assume the seat before a ruling on Sen. Norm Coleman’s lawsuit challenging Franken’s apparent 225 vote victory. Coleman’s suit disputes aspects of the recount, which reversed the initial result indicating Coleman’s re-election.

Read the full story here.

How Good Are Intrade Contracts As Predictors of Senate Election Results? A Look at 2008

A few days ago, I looked at how well Intrade contracts performed as predictors of the outcomes of races for the US Senate in 2006. You may recall that just before the elections, the Intrade contracts pointed to the victors in every Senate race. The same was true in 2008: the contract prices that I retrieved on 30 October pointed to the eventual victor in every race (assuming, as expected, that Al Franken is ultimately the winner).

But again, I wanted to examine how far in advance successful predictions could be made based upon these futures contracts. In early 2007, Colorado Sen. Wayne Allard announced his retirement. In May 2007 when I obtained my first information from Intrade, the contract was already indicated a Democratic victory. Ultimately, Mark Udall won this seat. At the end of August of 2007, Virginia Sen. John Warner told his constituents of his retirement. Within two weeks, former Governor Mark Warner announced his candidacy for the post. Intrade contract information obtained later that month indicated Mark Warner as the clear favorite, and he won election the following year. The third retirement announcement came from New Mexico’s Pete Domenici in early October in 2007. Congressman Tom Udall announced his candidacy almost immediately for the Democratic nomination and the state’s two Republican congresspersons did likewise for the nomination of their Party. By May of 2008, Udall’s ultimate victory was indicated by the pricing of Intrade contracts. At that same time, the Intrade numbers were suggesting the victory of former Governor Jeanne Shaheen over Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire.

So, by May 2008, fully 6 months before Election Day, the ultimate winners were being “predicted” by the Intrade contracts. The other four Democratic pick-ups were not so indicated until much closer to the elections. By early October, Mark Begich’s win over Ted Stevens in Alaska, Jeff Merkley’s defeat of Gordon Smith, and Kay Hagan’s victory over Elizabeth Dole were indicated by the Intrade contracts. It wasn’t until a few days before the election that Al Franken’s (apparent) victory over Norm Coleman was indicated by the Intrade numbers.
Once again, all Senate races were could be correctly predicted by interpretation of these Intrade futures contracts, and most could be determined almost a month ahead of time. Unfortunately, I don’t have the appropriate information in order to compare the relative accuracy and timeliness of predictions based on the various polling that occurred in these two cycles. Hopefully, I’ll be able to obtain such data for the coming cycle. If anyone would like to help collect such information, I would welcome their assistance

The Senate in the 111th Congress

The 111th Congress began in the Senate yesterday with the swearing-in of newly elected and re-elected members. However, there are still two seats vacant, although Democratic Party leaders hope that both will be filled soon.

Roland Burris, who was appointed by beleaguered Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, presented his documents to the Secretary of the Senate and was told that they were not in order – he lacked the signature of the Secretary of State of Illinois. Burris then went across the street to announce that he would be pursuing the matter in court if necessary. While the Democratic leadership has steadfastly said that they would not accept an appointment by Blagojevich, who was arrested for allegedly trying to sell the Senate vacated by President-elect Barack Obama. However, it is not clear that they have legal footing to thwart Burris’ efforts to assume the seat. Blagojevich is still Governor, and is required by law to appoint a successor to Obama. The tide seems to be turning in Burris’ favor – yesterday, California Senator Dianne Feinstein stated that Burris should be seated. Expect more activity on this matter today. The current Intrade contract on whether Burris will be seated is 92.0, indicating that those participating in this futures market feel that the ex-Illinois Attorney General would soon take his seat in the US Senate.

On Monday, the Minnesota State Election Board unanimously stated that the final vote count for Norm Coleman’s Senate seat showed Al Franken with a 225-vote margin. However, Franken did not go to Washington yesterday to try to get seated, opting to wait for expected legal action by Coleman. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada made a statement from the Senate floor in which he urged Coleman to concede, that Franken was the new Senator from Minnesota, but that the issue would not be pressed at that time.

Perhaps the other most significant news about Senate elections came by way of a statement by Florida ex-Governor Jeb Bush that he would not seek the Senate seat from which Mel Martinez has announced his retirement. This certainly changed the outlook for the seat. While Barack Obama picked up Florida’s electoral votes this year and suggested that Martinez’ retirement might offer a chance to pick up yet another Senate seat for the Democratic Party, it was widely believed that Bush would have a lock on the seat in the 2010 election should he run. His decision not to run would seem to put this seat firmly back into the winnable category for the Democrats.

Intrade Contracts for New York and Minnesota Seats

I’ve added a couple of things to the left sidebar. They both involve Intrade contracts. Intrade (www.intrade.com) is a real money futures market that has contracts on future political elections and events. The range of prices on the contracts is between 0 and 100. They correspond roughly to the perceived likelihood of the event in the eyes of those who are buying the contracts on this open market. The closer to 100 the contract is, the greater is the perceived likelihood that the even will occur. These contracts have proven to be quite accurate predictors. I’ll have more to say on such political futures markets a bit later. At this point, I’ve added the contracts on the appointment to fill the New York Senate seat occupied by Hillary Clinton. This is obviously contingent on her resigning to become Secretary of State. The other set of contracts I have up at this point involve the Norm Coleman’s Senate seat. The outcome is uncertain. The recount is underway and it is likely to be followed by challenges in court.