Candidates For 2010 Ohio Senate Race

When Ohio Sen. George Voinovich announced earlier this week that he would not run for re-election in 2010, the list of potential candidates for the post became a focus of attention and speculation. Former Rep. Rob Portman wasted no time in jumping into the race: he announced his candidacy yesterday.

I first looked at this field several weeks ago (see post here) focusing on the Democratic candidates. I suggested that Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, and Rep. Tim Ryan looked like the most likely people to win their Party’s nomination.

Portman won the first time he ran for office, winning the first of six terms in 1994. He received at least 70% of the vote in each election, but never sought a statewide office. He does, however, have $1.5 million remaining in his congressional campaign war chest, money that can be transferred over for a Senate race. Who else might seek the Republican nomination? State Auditor Mary Taylor has indicated an interest in running. She was the only Republican to win statewide in 2006, garnering 51% of the vote. Portman’s experience in the Bush administration would likely more than compensate for the fact that he has not run in a statewide race.

Other Republicans who have been mentioned include former Senator Mike DeWine and former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. DeWine was defeated by Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2006. A former Secretary of State, Blackwell was defeated by Ted Strickland in the 2006 Gubernatorial campaign. He was also somewhat tarnished for his involvement in what many thought was the manipulation of voting machines in the 2004 Presidential election in what became the deciding state contest in that campaign. His current focus is on the Chairmanship of the Republican National Committee, but that could change should he not win that post.

Portman’s experience and his rapid entry into the field probably make him difficult to beat for the Republican nomination.

On the Democratic side, Fisher, Brunner and Ryan still look like strong candidates. Let’s look at some numbers. Both Fisher and Brunner have run statewide. Fisher received 60% of the vote in 2006, although he was tied to Gov. Ted Strickland, so it’s difficult to tease out his vote-garnering ability. Fisher has the most political experience: he served in the State House and State Senate before his election as Attorney General in 1990. He won by a fraction of a percent in that race. He was defeated in his re-election bid for a second term in 1994, losing by about 3%. He also lost in his next outing, a bid for Governor in 1998. In that contest, he was outpolled by a half-dozen points.

Brunner received 55% in winning her first term as Secretary of State. She served two terms as a County Judge before seeking the statewide position. Rep. Ryan has won each of his four Congressional races convincingly. He served one term in the State Senate before seeking the US House seat. He raised a respectable $1.3 million in his last run and currently has about $300K that he could transfer over for a Senate run.

Public Policy Polling ran two polls in mid-2008, both with Voinovich still in the picture. In July, Brunner came out on top of Voinovich 42% - 38%. In August, Fisher outpolled Voinovich 40% - 38%

Others who have been mentioned include Reps. Betty Sutton, Zack Space, and Marcy Kaptur. Space raised nearly $2.3 million for his last run and Kaptur has nearly $1 million on hand.

Now that Portman has announced, I’d be very surprised if one or more Democrats didn’t follow suit quite rapidly. The state has been trending Democratic of late – this is a seat that would have to be near the top on DSCC’s list for next year.

Portman to Run For Voinovich’s Ohio Senate Seat in 2010

Former Congressman Rob Portman announced this morning that he would seek the Republican nomination for the Ohio US Senate seat currently occupied by Sen. George Voinovich. On Monday, Voinovich announced he would retire rather than seek another term. Portman became the first to announce his candidacy for the post. His campaign website can be found here.

After serving for six terms in the US House of Representatives from Ohio’s second district, Portman served as US Trade Representative and Director and the Office of Management and Budget during the administration of President George W. Bush.

Ohio Senate George Voinovich to Retire

Ohio Senator George Voinovich has announced that he will not seek a third term. The 72-year old Senator and former two-term Governor is the fourth Republican incumbent to announce that they will retire rather than run for re-election in 2010. Florida’s Mel Martinez, Kansas’ Sam Brownback and Missouri’s Kit Bond have previously made such announcements.

In an earlier post, I reviewed potential candidates for the Democratic Party. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan top the list of potential nominees. Former Rep. Rob Portman, who served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget for a year during the current administration, is viewed as a frontrunner to run on the Republican side.

How Good Are Intrade Contracts As Predictors of Senate Election Results? A look at 2006

The Intrade futures contracts on the outcomes of political events are one of the available metrics that can be used as predictors of elections. Intrade is a real money open market that has been in operation for several years. With respect to the US Senate, they offer contracts on all of the races and on several “derivatives”, such as Senate control after elections, the number of seats that a Political Party will control, and currently, the appointments that will follow recent or projected resignations. The contracts for the races are not based on the individual candidates, but rather on the Political Party that would prevail.

The use of real money futures markets began, as far as I know, with research at the University of Iowa – the Iowa Electronic Markets http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/. Beginning in 1988, their goal was to investigate the relative accuracy of predictions based on such markets as opposed to those based on polling data. Without going into details, there seems to be some evidence that futures markets provide very slightly better predictive ability. The Intrade market is completely independent of the University of Iowa market – it is a private entity.

I have monitored the Intrade contracts for US Senate races off and on since early 2006. How well did these contracts “predict” the outcomes of the US Senate races in the last two elections? This is the first of two posts in which I will examine the outcomes. Here I will examine the 2006 election cycle. Very shortly, I’ll look at last year’s results.

In 2006, the last time I obtained the numbers was on 2 November, five days before Election Day. The contract for Senate control was still firmly pointing to the Republican Party. However, in each of the individual races, the eventual winner was successfully predicted by the Intrade contracts. To refresh your memory, the 2006 election saw the Democrats pick up six Senate seats: Bob Casey, Jr. defeated incumbent Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown defeated incumbent Mike DeWine in Ohio, Sheldon Whitehouse defeated incumbent Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, Jon Tester defeated incumbent Conrad Burns in Montana, Jim Webb defeated incumbent George Allen in Virginia, and Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Jim Talent in Missouri.

I monitored the Intrade contracts two to three times per month starting in February 2006. At that point, these data were already indicating victories in Montana and Pennsylvania. The other four races gradually went in favor of the eventual winners. That took place in mid-April for Ohio, mid-July for Rhode Island, but not until November for Missouri and Virginia.

It may seem odd that all of the individual races were “predicted” correctly by the Intrade contract data, and the Democratic Party did take control, while the contract for “Senate control” still strongly indicated the Republican Party. For those well versed with statistical inference, this is not at all surprising. The best way to verbalize this is that while each of these six events (Democratic pick-ups) were favored, some were only very slightly favored, and the consensus was that it was unlikely that all six would go in favor of the Democratic candidates.

Some Pertinent Posts on Another Blog

I began examination of the upcoming 2010 Senate elections on another blog, entitled Political and Economic Numbers http://www.politicalandeconomicnumbers.blogspot.com/. I have already looked at a number of the 2010 races – please see those posts as I start putting additional content here. I’ve looked at North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, Iowa, North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana and Pennsylvania in some detail, and a few others briefly.

I’ll start by copying a post from that blog on the relationship between fundraising success and Election Day success in the Senate elections this year.