Candidates For 2010 Ohio Senate Race

When Ohio Sen. George Voinovich announced earlier this week that he would not run for re-election in 2010, the list of potential candidates for the post became a focus of attention and speculation. Former Rep. Rob Portman wasted no time in jumping into the race: he announced his candidacy yesterday.

I first looked at this field several weeks ago (see post here) focusing on the Democratic candidates. I suggested that Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, and Rep. Tim Ryan looked like the most likely people to win their Party’s nomination.

Portman won the first time he ran for office, winning the first of six terms in 1994. He received at least 70% of the vote in each election, but never sought a statewide office. He does, however, have $1.5 million remaining in his congressional campaign war chest, money that can be transferred over for a Senate race. Who else might seek the Republican nomination? State Auditor Mary Taylor has indicated an interest in running. She was the only Republican to win statewide in 2006, garnering 51% of the vote. Portman’s experience in the Bush administration would likely more than compensate for the fact that he has not run in a statewide race.

Other Republicans who have been mentioned include former Senator Mike DeWine and former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. DeWine was defeated by Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2006. A former Secretary of State, Blackwell was defeated by Ted Strickland in the 2006 Gubernatorial campaign. He was also somewhat tarnished for his involvement in what many thought was the manipulation of voting machines in the 2004 Presidential election in what became the deciding state contest in that campaign. His current focus is on the Chairmanship of the Republican National Committee, but that could change should he not win that post.

Portman’s experience and his rapid entry into the field probably make him difficult to beat for the Republican nomination.

On the Democratic side, Fisher, Brunner and Ryan still look like strong candidates. Let’s look at some numbers. Both Fisher and Brunner have run statewide. Fisher received 60% of the vote in 2006, although he was tied to Gov. Ted Strickland, so it’s difficult to tease out his vote-garnering ability. Fisher has the most political experience: he served in the State House and State Senate before his election as Attorney General in 1990. He won by a fraction of a percent in that race. He was defeated in his re-election bid for a second term in 1994, losing by about 3%. He also lost in his next outing, a bid for Governor in 1998. In that contest, he was outpolled by a half-dozen points.

Brunner received 55% in winning her first term as Secretary of State. She served two terms as a County Judge before seeking the statewide position. Rep. Ryan has won each of his four Congressional races convincingly. He served one term in the State Senate before seeking the US House seat. He raised a respectable $1.3 million in his last run and currently has about $300K that he could transfer over for a Senate run.

Public Policy Polling ran two polls in mid-2008, both with Voinovich still in the picture. In July, Brunner came out on top of Voinovich 42% - 38%. In August, Fisher outpolled Voinovich 40% - 38%

Others who have been mentioned include Reps. Betty Sutton, Zack Space, and Marcy Kaptur. Space raised nearly $2.3 million for his last run and Kaptur has nearly $1 million on hand.

Now that Portman has announced, I’d be very surprised if one or more Democrats didn’t follow suit quite rapidly. The state has been trending Democratic of late – this is a seat that would have to be near the top on DSCC’s list for next year.