It was widely reported yesterday that Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’s Hardball, told his producers yesterday that he would not run for the US Senate in 2010. He had been rumored as seriously considering a run for the seat currently held by Arlen Specter. In fact, Nate Silver reported late last year that Matthews was hiring staff for such a run.
About three weeks ago, I took my first look at this seat, one that is considered among the most likely to be picked up by Democrats in next year’s election. In that piece, I argued that Governor Ed Rendell would make the strongest candidate, and might well be the favorite should he run. I also briefly discussed current House members Patrick Murphy, Allyson Schwartz and Joe Sestak as perhaps the other potential Democratic candidates with the greatest chance of mounting a successful campaign.
While Rendell might well win regardless of his opponent, the success of other Democrats would likely depend on whether or not Sen. Arlen Specter decides to seek a 6th term or retire. Specter will be 80 years old on Election Day next year, and has been in a battle with Hodgkin’s lymphoma since 2005. While he has not publicly indicated his intent to retire, many believe that he will. In addition to the strong challenge that would be mounted by any of a number of Democrats, Specter is likely to face yet another Primary race against highly conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey, currently serving as President of the Club for Growth. Specter barely edged Toomey 51% - 49% in the 2004 Primary. It would be a long and tough election cycle for the aging Specter, one that would be avoided should he retire gracefully at this point.
Rendell has a long history in politics. He served two terms as District Attorney of Philadelphia starting in 1977 and then sought the 1986 Democratic nomination for Governor. He lost that bid to Robert Casey, Sr. He then sought the Democratic nomination for Mayor of Philadelphia and again lost in the Primary. However, he won that post in 1991 and 1995, and was elected Governor in 2002 and 2006. He is now term-limited: it is likely that he is eyeing the next rung on the political ladder, and the 2010 US Senate race seems perfect for him.
The trio of aforementioned member of the US House – Sestak, Schwartz and Murphy – top most lists of Democratic candidates. It would seem foolish for any of them to mount a Primary challenge against Rendell, although if seriously interested, it would seem that they each should be stockpiling cash for what would be an expensive Senate campaign. In 2004, Specter raised $19 million for his Primary and General Election races. Based solely on the financial picture, it would seem that Joe Sestak is in the best position: as of 24 November 2008, he had over $3.9 cash on hand. Allyson Schwartz also had a tidy sum on which to build, reporting about $2 million on hand. Patrick Murphy had but $200,000.
One person that I did not mention in my previous post was Philadelphia District Attorney Lynne Abraham. It was reported that she publicly indicated an interest in the Senate post should Chris Matthews not seek the nomination. Abraham spent 15 years as a Judge in Pennsylvania before her election as District Attorney. She has served in that capacity since 1991. Others who are receiving at least some attention are State Auditor general Jack Wagner and State Representative Josh Shapiro.
At this point, I would have to put Rendell as the favorite should he run. If Specter runs and Rendell does not, Specter would perhaps be a slight favorite at this point, although he would be strongly challenged by Sestak, Schwartz and Murphy, perhaps in that order of likelihood. Despite a statement from his office in early December suggesting that Sestak was intent on future service in the House, it’s hard to reconcile that with the horde of campaign cash on which he now sits.
For those who want a more exhaustive list of potential candidates, see this posting on DailyKos – there are 23 potential candidates mentioned!
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