Today, I'm going to look at the current make up of the StateLegislatures in the 35 states in which there will be US Senate racesnext year. In the table below, I have presented the percentage of eachParty in the State Senates and State Houses of Representatives, andthen the average of these two percentages. As before, the first twocolumns are the state and the Party that currently holds the US Senateseat. There are two rows for New York because there will be two racesnext year because of the special election for the seat recently vacatedby Hillary Clinton and filled by Kirsten Gillibrand.
| State | State Senate | State House | Avg | |
| AK | R | 50% | 45% | 48% |
| AL | R | 60% | 59% | 60% |
| AR | D | 77% | 71% | 74% |
| AZ | R | 40% | 42% | 41% |
| CA | D | 65% | 64% | 64% |
| CO | D | 60% | 58% | 59% |
| CT | D | 67% | 76% | 71% |
| DE | D | 76% | 61% | 69% |
| FL | R | 35% | 37% | 36% |
| GA | R | 39% | 41% | 40% |
| HI | D | 92% | 88% | 90% |
| IA | R | 64% | 56% | 60% |
| ID | R | 20% | 26% | 23% |
| IL | D | 63% | 59% | 61% |
| IN | D | 34% | 52% | 43% |
| KS | R | 22% | 38% | 30% |
| KY | R | 40% | 65% | 52% |
| LA | R | 56% | 50% | 53% |
| MD | D | 70% | 74% | 72% |
| MO | R | 32% | 45% | 39% |
| NC | R | 60% | 57% | 58% |
| ND | D | 45% | 38% | 42% |
| NH | R | 58% | 56% | 57% |
| NV | D | 57% | 67% | 62% |
| NY | D | 52% | 73% | 62% |
| NY | D | 52% | 73% | 62% |
| OH | R | 36% | 54% | 45% |
| OK | R | 46% | 40% | 43% |
| OR | D | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| PA | R | 40% | 51% | 46% |
| SC | R | 41% | 43% | 42% |
| SD | R | 40% | 34% | 37% |
| UT | D | 28% | 29% | 28% |
| VT | D | 77% | 63% | 70% |
| WA | D | 63% | 65% | 64% |
| WI | D | 54% | 53% | 54% |
Based on this criterion alone, there are six Republican seats and twoDemocratic seats that might be vulnerable.
In Iowa and Alabama, the current membership of the State Legislaturesaverage 60% Democratic, while the US Senate seats up in 2010 are heldby Republicans. In Iowa, Chuck Grassley's seat is up, and at thispoint, it appears that he will run for re-election. In Alabama, thesame holds for Richard Shelby.
The next two Republicans holding seats with Democratic majorities inthe State Legislature are Richard Burr in North Carolina and Judd Greggin New Hampshire. The two states have an average of 58% and 57%Democratic members in their State Capitals, respectively.
In all four of those mentioned above, the Democratic Party holds amajority in both houses of the State Legislatures. There are two otherUS Senators holding seats in states that have, on average, Democraticmajorities, although the Party holds an outright majority in only oneof the houses. These are David Vitter in Louisiana and Jim Bunning inKentucky.
There are only two Democratic members of the US Senate whose seats areup next year and who are holding office in states where theRepublican Party currently has the advantage in the State Legislatures.Byron Dorgan in North Dakota is a Democrat although his Party holdsonly an average of 42% of the legislative seats, and his Party is inthe minority in both houses. The other is Indiana's Evan Bayh: theDemocratic Party holds only an average of 43% of the seats in thestate's legislature, although they do hold a majority in the StateHouse of Representatives.
So, now we have examined recent voting in recent Presidential and StateLegislature elections, looking for potentially vulnerable seats. Theconsistent indicators seem to suggest that the seats in Iowa, NorthCarolina, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Indiana warrant considerationas potential pickups by one Political Party or the other.
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