Candidates For 2010 Ohio Senate Race

When Ohio Sen. George Voinovich announced earlier this week that he would not run for re-election in 2010, the list of potential candidates for the post became a focus of attention and speculation. Former Rep. Rob Portman wasted no time in jumping into the race: he announced his candidacy yesterday.

I first looked at this field several weeks ago (see post here) focusing on the Democratic candidates. I suggested that Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, and Rep. Tim Ryan looked like the most likely people to win their Party’s nomination.

Portman won the first time he ran for office, winning the first of six terms in 1994. He received at least 70% of the vote in each election, but never sought a statewide office. He does, however, have $1.5 million remaining in his congressional campaign war chest, money that can be transferred over for a Senate race. Who else might seek the Republican nomination? State Auditor Mary Taylor has indicated an interest in running. She was the only Republican to win statewide in 2006, garnering 51% of the vote. Portman’s experience in the Bush administration would likely more than compensate for the fact that he has not run in a statewide race.

Other Republicans who have been mentioned include former Senator Mike DeWine and former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. DeWine was defeated by Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2006. A former Secretary of State, Blackwell was defeated by Ted Strickland in the 2006 Gubernatorial campaign. He was also somewhat tarnished for his involvement in what many thought was the manipulation of voting machines in the 2004 Presidential election in what became the deciding state contest in that campaign. His current focus is on the Chairmanship of the Republican National Committee, but that could change should he not win that post.

Portman’s experience and his rapid entry into the field probably make him difficult to beat for the Republican nomination.

On the Democratic side, Fisher, Brunner and Ryan still look like strong candidates. Let’s look at some numbers. Both Fisher and Brunner have run statewide. Fisher received 60% of the vote in 2006, although he was tied to Gov. Ted Strickland, so it’s difficult to tease out his vote-garnering ability. Fisher has the most political experience: he served in the State House and State Senate before his election as Attorney General in 1990. He won by a fraction of a percent in that race. He was defeated in his re-election bid for a second term in 1994, losing by about 3%. He also lost in his next outing, a bid for Governor in 1998. In that contest, he was outpolled by a half-dozen points.

Brunner received 55% in winning her first term as Secretary of State. She served two terms as a County Judge before seeking the statewide position. Rep. Ryan has won each of his four Congressional races convincingly. He served one term in the State Senate before seeking the US House seat. He raised a respectable $1.3 million in his last run and currently has about $300K that he could transfer over for a Senate run.

Public Policy Polling ran two polls in mid-2008, both with Voinovich still in the picture. In July, Brunner came out on top of Voinovich 42% - 38%. In August, Fisher outpolled Voinovich 40% - 38%

Others who have been mentioned include Reps. Betty Sutton, Zack Space, and Marcy Kaptur. Space raised nearly $2.3 million for his last run and Kaptur has nearly $1 million on hand.

Now that Portman has announced, I’d be very surprised if one or more Democrats didn’t follow suit quite rapidly. The state has been trending Democratic of late – this is a seat that would have to be near the top on DSCC’s list for next year.

Roland Burris Sworn In As Illinois’ Junoir Senator

A few minutes ago, Roland Burris was sworn in as the Junior Senator from Illinois. This ends more than a week of controversy following his appointment by now-impeached Illinois Governor Rod Blagojovich. Democratic leaders in the Senate had initially indicated that they would not seat an appointment by the embattled Governor. However, it was gradually realized that, though controversial, the appointment was legal.

Decision on Franken Petition No Sooner Than February

The Minnesota Supreme Court will not rule on Al Franken’s petition for an expedited election certificate until at least February 5. Franken sought the certificate so that he could assume the seat before a ruling on Sen. Norm Coleman’s lawsuit challenging Franken’s apparent 225 vote victory. Coleman’s suit disputes aspects of the recount, which reversed the initial result indicating Coleman’s re-election.

Read the full story here.

Portman to Run For Voinovich’s Ohio Senate Seat in 2010

Former Congressman Rob Portman announced this morning that he would seek the Republican nomination for the Ohio US Senate seat currently occupied by Sen. George Voinovich. On Monday, Voinovich announced he would retire rather than seek another term. Portman became the first to announce his candidacy for the post. His campaign website can be found here.

After serving for six terms in the US House of Representatives from Ohio’s second district, Portman served as US Trade Representative and Director and the Office of Management and Budget during the administration of President George W. Bush.

Rep. Kendrick Meek to Seek Florida Senate Seat

Rep. Kendrick Meek became the first Democrat to declare candidacy for the Florida Senate seat now held by Sen. Mel Martinez, who has announced that he will retire rather than seek re-election in 2010. Other Democrats who may seek the nomination include Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, and US Representatives Ron Klein, Allen Boyd, Robert Wexler and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum leads the list of potential GOP nominees. Rep. Connie Mack may also join the field.

This seat has been thrown wide open by the announcement last week that former Governor Jeb Bush would not run for the position. He had been viewed as essentially unbeatable were he to run.

Among the likely candidates, only Sink and McCollum have run statewide races. Sink received 54% of the vote in 2006 while being elected as the state’s CFO. McCollum won 53% that year in becoming AG.

Roland Burris to be Seated in Senate

It was announced today by the Democratic leadership that Roland Burris would be seated in the US Senate. He was appointed by Illinois Governor Rod Blagojovich to replace President-Elect Barack Obama amid a cloud of corruption wherein the Governor has been accused of trying to sell the seat. The Democratic leadership had initially indicated that they would refuse to seat any nominee put forth by Blagojovich. When he presented his credentials last week, Burris was refused his seat. The stated reason was that his paperwork did not contain the signature of the Illinois Seceretary of State Jesse White. In a joint statement, Senate Majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Majority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois indicated that Burris, barring objections from the Minority, would be sworn in later this week.

Ohio Senate George Voinovich to Retire

Ohio Senator George Voinovich has announced that he will not seek a third term. The 72-year old Senator and former two-term Governor is the fourth Republican incumbent to announce that they will retire rather than run for re-election in 2010. Florida’s Mel Martinez, Kansas’ Sam Brownback and Missouri’s Kit Bond have previously made such announcements.

In an earlier post, I reviewed potential candidates for the Democratic Party. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan top the list of potential nominees. Former Rep. Rob Portman, who served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget for a year during the current administration, is viewed as a frontrunner to run on the Republican side.